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Florida is seeing broad residence value declines throughout lots of its metros, with no clear finish in sight. Some cities are posting double-digit losses. Condos are particularly arduous hit.
So, the query is: Is Florida the canary within the coal mine? Or is it merely experiencing a market correction distinctive to its personal set of circumstances?
Let’s dig in.
Florida’s Meteoric Rise Through the Pandemic Growth
Between March 2020 and June 2022, residence costs in Florida surged by over 50%—outpacing the nationwide enhance of about 41% over the identical interval. The state turned a magnet for pandemic-era movers: distant staff, retirees, and households searching for extra space and decrease taxes. Web home migration into Florida peaked at 314,000 new residents in 2022, the very best of any state.
This wasn’t only a non permanent blip—it reshaped the demand curve in Florida. Most of the new consumers got here from high-priced coastal markets and introduced with them fairness and better incomes, which drove bidding wars and outpaced native wage progress.
On the identical time, Florida added a whole bunch of hundreds of jobs and have become an financial outlier, with employment progress constantly above the nationwide common. The outcome was a highly effective cocktail of demand, optimism, and fast appreciation.
The Correction: What’s Taking place in Florida Now
Quick-forward to 2025, and the story seems very totally different.
Condos are actually down yr over yr in 92% of Florida markets. Single-family residence costs have fallen in roughly two-thirds of them. Cities like Punta Gorda, North Port, and Cape Coral are seeing rental costs decline by 7% to 11%, whereas even main metros like Tampa and Naples have posted significant drops. Miami and Orlando are holding up higher, however the general development is clearly adverse.
So what modified?
For starters, the pandemic-era migration wave has subsided. Florida’s internet migration dropped from 314,000 in 2022 to about 64,000 in 2024—nonetheless optimistic, however representing an 80% decline. And not using a fixed stream of out-of-state consumers, demand normalized. Native consumers—who don’t have California-sized residence fairness—now dominate the market, they usually’re dealing with a really totally different affordability atmosphere.
Mortgage charges over 7% have hit Florida particularly arduous as a result of residence values ran thus far forward of incomes. Even consumers who wish to keep are discovering it more durable to make the math work. And it’s not simply rates of interest—they’re getting hit with rising taxes, insurance coverage premiums, and rental charges that are actually placing actual stress on the price of homeownership.
Insurance coverage and Tax Burdens Are Weighing the Market Down
If there’s one wild card that’s made Florida’s housing correction particularly sharp, it’s insurance coverage.
Florida owners now pay the very best common residence insurance coverage premiums within the nation—over $10,000 yearly. That’s practically double the next-most-expensive state. Premiums have risen as a consequence of elevated hurricane threat, insurer pullouts, and tightening underwriting requirements. They usually’re not displaying indicators of coming down anytime quickly.
Property taxes have additionally jumped—not as a result of charges are unusually excessive, however as a result of assessed values ballooned through the increase years. Even with protections just like the “Save Our Houses” homestead cap, tax payments have climbed in actual greenback phrases.
For rental house owners, a wave of latest laws and assessments have adopted the Surfside rental collapse in 2021. Necessary security enhancements have raised HOA charges and launched massive one-time assessments in lots of buildings. Apartment gross sales are actually at their lowest degree in 15 years, and costs are falling quicker than within the single-family market.
Taken collectively, these prices have compelled some would-be consumers to carry off and pushed some present house owners to listing their houses—particularly traders who now not see viable money stream.
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How Does Florida Evaluate to Different Markets?
To evaluate whether or not Florida’s correction is a one-off or a nationwide development, let’s examine it to 2 very totally different states: Texas and Wisconsin.
Texas: Comparable setup, however a softer touchdown
Texas additionally noticed a surge in migration through the pandemic and posted a statewide value enhance of round 40% between 2019 and 2023. When charges rose, costs in Texas cooled, and Austin—a metropolis that skilled one of many sharpest booms—noticed a double-digit drop. However exterior of Austin, most Texas markets noticed solely delicate corrections or flatlining.
Texas shares many traits with Florida: no state revenue tax, robust job progress, and numerous land for brand spanking new development. However Texas hasn’t confronted the identical insurance coverage disaster, nor has it seen the rental charge spikes that Florida has. Its correction has been market-driven, not cost-driven.
Wisconsin: A examine in gradual and regular
Wisconsin is a unique story totally. It didn’t expertise an enormous pandemic housing increase. Value progress has been constant however moderate—aspherical 7% to eight% annually—and residence values in lots of markets continued to rise into 2024.
There are just a few causes for this: secure native demand, restricted investor exercise, and far much less new development. Wisconsin owners are additionally insulated from lots of the value spikes that Floridians now face. In consequence, costs in Wisconsin proceed to inch upward, and the state stays in a good vendor’s market.
The Nationwide View: A Combined Image, however Florida Stands Out
Nationally, residence costs have been comparatively flat to barely up over the previous yr. Many markets that ran scorching in 2021—Phoenix, Boise, elements of Nevada—have stabilized after average corrections. However Florida’s correction has been each deeper and extra persistent.
In actual fact, no different main market within the U.S. is displaying the identical mixture of falling demand, rising prices, insurance coverage instability, and oversupply—particularly in its rental sector. Florida has all 4 issues happening.
For actual property traders, that issues. It means that whereas many U.S. markets are cooling, Florida is main the downturn, not simply collaborating in it.
What Buyers Have to Watch
Nobody is asking for a repeat of 2008, however there are just a few essential dangers to contemplate—particularly in Florida condos:
As costs fall, some house owners might go underwater or stroll away, rising stock.
New assessments might deter consumers and drive additional reductions.
Buyers who purchased in 2021 based mostly on money stream might now be underwater as a consequence of insurance coverage and HOA value inflation.
On the identical time, Florida nonetheless has robust long-term fundamentals: a heat local weather, no revenue tax, and continued enterprise migration. Whereas the surge has light, the state continues to be rising—simply at a slower tempo.
What we’re seeing now shouldn’t be the collapse of Florida’s market—it’s a reset.
Key Classes from Florida’s Housing Decline
There are a number of takeaways right here for traders Florida—or comparable high-growth markets. Listed below are 5 to contemplate.
1. Booms can reverse rapidly.
Markets pushed by migration, investor hypothesis, or non permanent tailwinds can cool quick when situations change. The identical out-of-state cash that fueled Florida’s rise left simply as rapidly.
2. Provide issues.
Florida and Texas each have elastic provide. Builders ramped up when costs surged, and stock has risen quick. Actual property is native, however in markets with ample land and builder exercise, provide will ultimately catch as much as demand.
3. Whole value of possession is essential.
Buyers typically deal with value and mortgage charges—however insurance coverage, taxes, HOA dues, and upkeep prices could make or break a deal. In Florida, insurance coverage alone can eat via anticipated money stream. Apartment house owners are dealing with steep charges that weren’t on the radar two years in the past. At all times underwrite with room for value volatility.
4. Local weather threat is now monetary threat.
Florida’s state of affairs exhibits that climate-related dangers—like hurricanes and flooding—are now not summary. They’re straight affecting premiums, coverage availability, and laws. Buyers in different high-risk zones ought to take notice: This might quickly apply to wildfire zones in California, flood-prone areas in Louisiana, and even drought-stricken areas within the Southwest.
5. Housing markets are native.
In 2024 and 2025, we’re seeing Florida condos fall 10%+, whereas Midwest houses are nonetheless gaining worth. Nationwide headlines received’t let you know the full story. Buyers should look market by market, property kind by property kind.
Closing Ideas
Florida shouldn’t be an ideal stand-in for the remainder of the U.S.—however it’s a highly effective case examine. It exhibits what occurs when fast progress collides with structural prices and shifting demographics. Not each state will comply with Florida’s path, however the warning indicators are price watching.
If you happen to’re an investor focusing on Florida—or any fast-growing Sunbelt market—don’t simply ask what costs are doing. Ask why. Dig into migration traits, value constructions, and native stock. And above all, construct in buffers. The markets that soared the very best will at all times be those most weak when the winds change.
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Dave Meyer is an actual property investor and the VP of Knowledge & Analytics at BiggerPockets. Observe him @thedatadeli.
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