By Craig Wong
Heading into 2026, commerce will stay within the highlight, however the brand new yr additionally brings new challenges as Ottawa appears to make basic adjustments to the financial system.
Right here’s a take a look at 5 issues to observe in Canadian enterprise for 2026:
Commerce
U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariffs had been the massive story for 2025 and that isn’t anticipated to vary for 2026 because the free commerce settlement between Canada, america and Mexico is up for formal overview.
Forward of the talks, the U.S. has stated it’s higher market entry for U.S. dairy merchandise. Canada can be dealing with stress to remove each the On-line Streaming Act and On-line Information Act, and finish the provincial bans on the distribution of U.S. alcohol.
CIBC senior economist Katherine Choose stated she thinks Trump sees the virtues of the commerce settlement and that regardless of his bluster, the U.S. president is not going to ditch the deal.
“We could retain some tariffs in sectors which are already in place, like autos and lumber, however we do imagine President Trump sees benefit in it,” she stated of the commerce settlement.
Choose says there’s some incentive for Trump to wrap up the commerce talks earlier than the midterm elections within the U.S. as the price of U.S. tariffs start to feed into client costs.
Nation constructing tasks
Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked an enormous sport about nation constructing tasks and 2026 will see if he can begin to ship.
The federal authorities has introduced an settlement with Alberta to help the event of a brand new pipeline and a cope with Ontario to assist facilitate the event of crucial mineral tasks within the province’s Ring of Fireplace area.
Nevertheless, the take a look at for 2026 shall be getting shovels within the floor and making good on shifting Canada’s financial focus away from america.
Markets
The S&P/TSX composite index hit report highs in 2025, helped by power within the monetary sector, the hovering worth of gold and Shopify.
The good points got here as the thrill round synthetic intelligence and the spending wanted to construct and energy the information centres the know-how requires additionally drove U.S. inventory markets to report ranges.
Macan Nia, co-chief funding strategist at Manulife Investments, doesn’t see the identical stage of returns for 2026, however says there’s nonetheless room for development.
“The drivers which have pushed it to mid-20 per cent returns this yr, these catalysts are nonetheless in place for subsequent yr. They’re simply not going to have the ability to shine as brightly as a result of valuations are in a trickier spot,” he stated.
Nia says he thinks the comparisons to the dot-com bubble within the 2000s are untimely. He says if there’s a pullback in spending on AI, it seemingly gained’t be sufficient to trigger a broader recession within the financial system that might set off a bear market.
Actual property
Dwelling gross sales in Canada started to indicate some life towards the tip of the yr, however they had been coming off a interval of sustained weak spot.
CIBC’s Choose sees 2026 as a transition yr for the housing market with financial uncertainty tied to the free commerce talks with the U.S. and Mexico nonetheless weighing in the marketplace.
“We don’t suppose we’ll see a sustained pickup actually till the second half of the yr,” she stated, noting that situations are anticipated to enhance into 2027.
Constructing new properties was a serious promise within the federal election and Choose says there was a pickup in development of latest rental models.
“It’s not one thing that may occur in a single day, clearly. I feel we’re making steps in the best path however there’s simply a lot pent up demand as nicely,” she stated.
Auto talks
The Unifor contracts on the large U.S. automakers come up for negotiation in 2026. The union made good points of their final spherical of bargaining in 2023, however the panorama has modified. U.S. President Donald Trump desires to develop the U.S. auto business even when comes on the expense of Canadian operations.
The talks come after Stellantis introduced it was transferring deliberate manufacturing of its Jeep Compass from Brampton, Ont., to Illinois. Stellantis is including a 3rd shift to the Windsor Meeting Plant, nonetheless no alternative has been named for the Brampton plant.
Normal Motors, which has introduced plans to chop the third shift at its Oshawa, Ont., plant, additionally ended manufacturing of its BrightDrop electrical supply van at its CAMI Meeting plant in Ingersoll, Ont., after it stated the marketplace for electrical automobiles has developed at a a lot slower tempo than anticipated. It famous {that a} altering regulatory atmosphere and the elimination of tax credit within the U.S. made the enterprise much more difficult.
Unifor nationwide president Lana Payne stated there’s quite a lot of uncertainty heading into bargaining this yr, however the union will work to guard Canadian jobs.
“We have now to proceed to make progress for working folks regardless of the challenges in entrance of us,” she stated.
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2026 forecasts fairness markets Katherine Choose Macan Nia The Canadian Press commerce
Final modified: December 31, 2025
