The corporate’s PTI metric compares a borrower’s month-to-month debt obligation to their gross month-to-month revenue. Satyan Service provider (pictured prime), SVP of auto and mortgage enterprise chief at TransUnion, mentioned it was important to establish a number one indicator that might alert lenders and brokers to potential future mortgage hassle.
“The rationale we even checked out this matter, which is mortgage delinquencies, is often because no one else has been it for some time,” Service provider advised Mortgage Skilled America. “Mortgage delinquencies are nonetheless comparatively low, and that is a great factor available in the market. However we had been at all-time lows not that way back. We all the time wish to control the info and get forward of the pattern.”
Canary within the coal mine
The information in contrast the PTI of debtors to mortgage delinquencies of the identical borrower one yr later. In March 2023, the PTI index was 2.18. By December, it had risen to 2.33. In March 2024, debtors reaching 60 days overdue (DPD) had been 0.42%. By December 2024, that was as much as 0.63%.
Once more, the proportion of debtors reaching 60 DPD was nonetheless very low. Nonetheless, as family funds rose, that ultimately affected the power to make mortgage funds on time.
“Mortgage delinquencies have been ticking up within the final yr or two,” Service provider mentioned. “We needed to see if there was any sign that we will discover as an early warning signal, or canary within the coal mine on this present cycle. We honed in on the PTI metrics, not only for the mortgage itself, however PTI, throughout the pockets, that are the opposite various kinds of mortgage merchandise {that a} client may need.
